Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1520 (S17W48) remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the disk, however it has remained
rather stable and quiet. Regions 1521 (S21W60) and 1519 (S17W68)
have been the most active regions producing low level C-class
events. Both regions have shown moderate growth in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(16-18 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for
the past 24 hours. These elevated levels can be attributed to
continuing CME effects. Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed
variable IMF total field strength and occasional negative Bz early
in the period. Around 0600Z, total IMF peaked around 28 nT, with the
Bz component reaching a maximum deflection of -18 nT. These levels
remained almost constant and elevated throughout the remainder of
the summary period. Multiple major to severe storm periods at high
latitudes with minor to major storm periods at mid latitudes were
observed during the period, due to the 16 hours of sustained
negative Bz coupled with elevated (500-600 km/s) solar wind speeds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 July) as CME
effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on
days two and three (17-18 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jul a 18 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jul 141 Previsto 16 Jul-18 Jul 135/130/120 Media de 90 Días 15 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 011/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 032/049 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 013/018-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jul a 18 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 05% | 05% |
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