Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 170 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S15W53) produced
a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at
17/2139Z. Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at
690 millionths. Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42)
showed signs of decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from
17/2100Z to 18/0300Z. Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z
to 18/0600Z. This elevated activity was due to persistent effects
from the 13 and 14 June CMEs. The remainder of the period showed a
steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels
are expected on 20 - 21 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jun a 21 Jun
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jun 118 Previsto 19 Jun-21 Jun 115/110/095 Media de 90 Días 18 Jun 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 036/055 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jun 013/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 008/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jun a 21 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 05% | 05% |
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