Viendo archivo del miércoles, 25 abril 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 116 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Apr 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1459 (S16W65) produced a C1 x-ray event at 25/0224Z while Region 1460 (N15W81) produced a C3/Sf at 25/1215Z. Region 1465 (S17W26) indicated consolidation in both its leader and trailer spots. The region appeared to have lost its gamma and delta magnetic configuration, but still maintained an east to west oriented inversion line. No discernible changes were noted in the remaining regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (26 - 28 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions with an isolated high latitude severe storm period observed during 25/0600Z - 0900Z. This activity was due to coronal hole high speed stream affects (CH HSS). Over the past 24 hours, solar wind velocities gradually increased from about 600 km/s to near 800 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) varied between 5 to 12 nT while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly south from -4 to -10 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods on day one (26 April) as the 23 April CME is expected to become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on day two (27 April) as effects of the CME wane. By day three (28 April), mostly quiet conditions are expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Apr a 28 Apr
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Apr 127
  Previsto   26 Apr-28 Apr  125/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        25 Apr 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Apr  030/043
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  018/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  017/025-011/015-004/006
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Apr a 28 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%10%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor30%15%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

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