Viendo archivo del sábado, 7 abril 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 098 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Apr 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1452 (N17W23) produced a
C2 x-ray flare and occasional B-class flares. It gradually decayed
to a small B-type group during the period. Region 1450 (N15W59)
gradually decayed to a C-type group during the period and produced
an isolated B-class flare. However, it retained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days 1 - 3 (08 - 10 April) with isolated C-class
flares likely from Region 1452.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes during 07/0900 - 1500Z. This activity was
associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz, enhanced IMF
Bt, and increased solar wind speeds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (08
April). A CME passage is expected to commence late on day 1 (from
the partial-halo CME observed on 05 April). Consequently, activity
is expected to increase to unsettled levels beginning late on day 1
and continue until early on day 3 (10 April). There will also be a
chance for active levels on day 2 (09 April) along with a chance for
minor storm levels at high latitudes. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 as CME effects
subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Apr 099 Previsto 08 Apr-10 Apr 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 07 Apr 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 008/010-013/015-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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