Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 marzo 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 085 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Mar 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C3/1n flare was observed from Region 1444 (N19E11) at 25/0028Z. This was followed by dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery north of Region 1444 at 25/0034Z. At 25/0448Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the northeast limb . A C2 flare occurred at 25/0157Z from Region 1445 (S24E52). Material was seen lifting off the southeast limb near Region 1445 at 25/0138Z in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. At 25/0512Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the southeast limb. Neither CME is expected to be particularly geoeffective. Region 1445 grew substantially over the past 24 hours and was classified as an Fho type group with beta magnetic characteristics. New Region 1446 (N23W27) was numbered today and classified as a small Bxo type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is expected to return late on Day 3 (28 March), further increasing the possibility of an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased over the past 24 hours and ended the period around 370 km/s. Bz was generally neutral.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for Days 1 and 2 (26-27 March), increasing to unsettled to active conditions on Day 3 (28 March) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Mar a 28 Mar
Clase M35%35%45%
Clase X05%05%10%
Protón01%01%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Mar 101
  Previsto   26 Mar-28 Mar  105/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        25 Mar 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Mar  009/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  006/005-006/005-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Mar a 28 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%35%
Tormenta Menor01%01%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%15%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%45%

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