Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 marzo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 076 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Mar 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N14W25) produced
three C1/Sf flares during the period. This region decreased in area
and spot count, ending the day as a Eso type group with a beta-gamma
configuration. New Region 1436 (S12E62), a simple Axx type group,
was numbered today. SDO/AIA 171 imagery showed a filament erupted
from the northwest limb around 18Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active levels as
effects from yesterdays CME impact began to wane. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft remained high, averaging about 660 km/s
through the period while Bz ranged from +5 to -5 nT. Data suggests
we may already be under the influence of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at unsettled to active levels with minor to major
storm periods at high latitudes for Day 1 (17 Mar). Days 2 and 3
(18-19 Mar) will see a return to predominantly active levels with
minor storm periods possible as an earth-directed CME from 15 Mar
arrives mid to late on the 18th. A glancing blow from a 14 Mar CME
is expected to precede the CME by about 12 hours. Major to severe
storm levels will be possible at high latitudes. The geomagnetic
field should return to active to unsettled levels late on Day 3 (19
Mar) as effects begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Mar 099 Previsto 17 Mar-19 Mar 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 16 Mar 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 024/038 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 014/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 013/015-018/025-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 15% |
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