Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 049 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 1421
(N17E59) rotated onto the disk as a simple unipolar group. The
remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (19 -
21 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind velocities
were steady at 300 km/s through about 18/1500Z while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly
north. After 1500Z, wind speed, temperature and density all
indicated gradual increases, while Bz indicated some rotation
through +/- 7 nT. These signatures were indicative of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, on day one (19 February) due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
By days two and three (20 - 21 February), a return to mostly quiet
levels is expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Feb a 21 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Feb 104 Previsto 19 Feb-21 Feb 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Feb 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 008/008-004/005-003/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Feb a 21 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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