Viendo archivo del martes, 13 marzo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 073 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Mar 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1429
(N18W62) produced a long duration M7 flare at 13/1741Z associated
with Type II and IV radio sweeps (estimated velocity 1366 km/s), a
1400 sfu Tenflare, and an assymetric-halo CME (plane-of-sky velocity
1375 km/s) with a mostly northwest trajectory. The geoeffectiveness
of this CME is currently under evaluation.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare until Region
1429 rotates off the visible disk on 15 March. Day 3 (16 March)
solar activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a slight
chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV and greater than 100 MeV protons became rapidly enhanced just
after the M7 flare with associated CME. The greater than 10 MeV
event began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 469 PFU at
13/2045Z and is decreasing. The greater than 100 MeV event also
began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 18.9 PFU and is also
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 and 15
March). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions on day 3 (16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 20% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 90% | 80% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Mar 141 Previsto 14 Mar-16 Mar 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 13 Mar 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 028/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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