Viendo archivo del martes, 27 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 27 2210 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 270 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
during the period from Region 1302 (N13E08). The largest of these
was a C6 flare at 27/2058Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a chance for M-class during the period (28-30 September). There
will also be a chance for an X-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An isolated
period of major to severe storm levels were observed from
27/0000-0300Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
23/2255Z, reached a maximum of 35.7 pfu at 26/1155Z, and ended at
27/0430Z. Wind speeds reached 704 km/s at 26/2150Z and decreased to
512 km/s at 27/1703Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28
September). Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (29-30
September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Sep 139 Previsto 28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 27 Sep 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/067 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 020/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 008/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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