Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were five numbered
active regions today, but most remained quiet and stable. Regions
1254 (S22W17) and 1259 (N25E42) were classified as Cso Beta groups.
Only 1254 produced any x-ray events during the period, the largest a
B8 flare at 20/1551Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for a C-class event for the next 3 days
(21-23 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next 3 days (21-23
July), with an isolated minor storm possible at high latitudes. This
activity is forecast as the result of high speed stream effects from
a currently geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jul 100 Previsto 21 Jul-23 Jul 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 20 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 010/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 016/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 018/015-014/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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