Viendo archivo del viernes, 3 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 154 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22W14) produced
a C2/Sf flare at 03/1617Z. This region is a Dkc group with a beta
magnetic classification. All other numbered regions on the disk
remained stable through the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to low with
a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,
and isolated major storm levels at high latitudes, for day one (04
June). Activity is expected due to the combination of effects from
a coronal hole high-speed stream and a CME observed on 02 June.
Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions are
expected for day two (05 June). Day three (06 June) is expected to
be quiet to unsettled as activity effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jun a 06 Jun
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jun 107 Previsto 04 Jun-06 Jun 106/104/102 Media de 90 Días 03 Jun 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/025-015/018-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jun a 06 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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