Viendo archivo del jueves, 12 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 132 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. A
single C2/1F was observed at 12/1236Z. The x-ray event and flare are
likely associated with a filament which disappeared between
12/1216Z-1231Z located near N18E47.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (13-15 May). Region 1208
(N21W06) is the most likely region for activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (13-14 May).
Day three (15 May) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for an isolated active period, late in the day. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geo-effective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 May a 15 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 May 093 Previsto 13 May-15 May 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 12 May 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 May 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 May 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/010-008/008-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 May a 15 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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