Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 abril 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 106 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Apr 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Occasional C-class
flares were observed during the period. Two C5 flares were observed
from Region 1190 (N14W40): a C5/Sf flare at 16/0057Z and a C5/Sf
flare at 16/1414Z. Additionally, Region 1185 (N14W93) produced a C3
flare at 16/1653Z Regions 1190 and 1193 continue to remain the most
significant regions on the disk. The CME mentioned in the forecast
yesterday is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast
period (17-19 April).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels, with C-class flares expected for the next three days
(17-19 April). There is also a chance for M-class flares during the
period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(17-19 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Apr 119 Previsto 17 Apr-19 Apr 123/125/128 Media de 90 Días 16 Apr 103
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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