Viendo archivo del viernes, 1 abril 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 091 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Apr 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1178 (S17W36) produced a C1/Sf at 31/2221Z associated with a partial-halo CME that appeared to be directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1178 decayed to a plage area during the period. Region 1176 (S16W65) produced C3 flares at 01/0156Z and 01/0354Z, each of which were associated with CME activity. This CME activity also appeared to be directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1176 gradually decayed during the period with a loss of spot count and area. It was classified as an Fso-type with a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 1183 (N17E01) showed a gradual increase in spot count and area and was classified as an Esi-type with a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 1184, a single-spot Axx-type, was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (02 - 04 April) with a slight chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity increased to quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind observations indicated the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) at approximately 01/1600Z. Velocities increased to a peak of 495 km/s at 01/1801Z. IMF changes associated with the CH HSS included increased Bt (peaks to 12 nT during 01/2000 - 2100Z) and intervals of southward Bz (maximum deflection -10 nT at 01/1628Z).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day 1 (02 April) with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 April) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Apr a 04 Apr
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       01 Apr 109
  Previsto   02 Apr-04 Apr  110/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        01 Apr 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 31 Mar  002/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  010/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Apr a 04 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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