Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 marzo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 069 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Mar 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X1/2b flare was observed
at 09/2323Z from Region 1166 (N08W26). This region grew slightly
during the period and was classified as an Ekc type sunspot group
with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1169 (N20E04)
decayed slightly and ended the period as an Eai type group with
Beta-Gamma characteristics. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class x-ray event from Region
1166 or 1169 for the next three days (11-13 March).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at middle latitudes and
briefly reached severe storm levels at high latitudes. The
geomagnetic disturbance was likely caused by the arrival of the 07
March CME. The CME shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 06Z accompanied by a slight increase in wind speed to
360 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned southward and averaged -9nT from 10/06Z to 10/09Z. The 10
MeV proton greater than 10 pfu event that began 08/0105Z ended at
10/1210Z with a maximum flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days with a
slight chance for minor to major storm conditions at high latitudes.
Lingering effects from the CME passage are expected on days one and
two (11-12 March) and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective on day three (13 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Mar a 13 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Mar 131 Previsto 11 Mar-13 Mar 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 10 Mar 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Mar 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 010/018-007/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Mar a 13 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 10% |
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