Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 048 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1158 (S19W52) decayed in area but retained a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. It produced several C-class events, the
largest of which was a C6 observed at 16/0146Z. Region 1161
exhibited slow growth and has an area of 140 millionths with a
beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class activity likely and a slight chance for an
isolated X-class event for the next three days (18-20 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods
for day one (18 February). This activity is due to the effects of
two CMEs; the first associated with an M6 event at 13/1735Z and the
second associated with an X2 event at 15/0156Z. Quiet to active
conditions are expected for day two (19 February) as the effects of
these disturbances wane. The geomagnetic field is expected to
return to mostly quiet conditions on day three (20 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Feb 111 Previsto 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 17 Feb 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 025/025-015/015-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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