Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 enero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N24E09) produced two low-level B-class flares during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at Boulder between 20/0900 - 1200Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (21 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected
on day two (22 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity should decrease to quiet levels on day three (23
January) as the effects of the CH HSS wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 082 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 082/082/082 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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