Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 octubre 2010

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 284 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Oct 2010

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S19E40) showed little change during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery observed a filament eruption at approximately 10/2121Z. The filament was 17 degrees long and centered near S08E48, just north of Region 1112. A slow-moving, CME was detected at 11/0012Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery and did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for C-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Activity levels were quiet through 11/0600Z. By 11/0900Z, geomagnetic activity increased at all latitudes to predominately unsettled to active levels with an isolated minor storm period observed between 11/1200 - 1500Z. At approximately 11/0300Z, measurements at the ACE spacecraft observed flucuations in the B component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) along with a sharp increase in density and a slight increase in wind velocity. The IMF Bz reached a maximum of -13 nT at 11/0915Z, and remained southward through 11/1805Z. The IMF Bt hit a maximum of 14 nT at 11/0936Z while density reached a peak of 47 p/cc at 11/0509Z. Wind velocities increased slightly from a low of 325 km/s at the beginning of the summary period and peaked near 375 km/s at 11/1826Z. The increase in activity is most likely a result of a glancing blow from the 06 October full-halo CME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods on day one (12 October) due to lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected by days two and three (13 - 14 October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Oct a 14 Oct
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 Oct 075
  Previsto   12 Oct-14 Oct  076/076/076
  Media de 90 Días        11 Oct 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 Oct  001/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Oct a 14 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%15%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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