Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 marzo 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Mar 12 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Mar 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 12/1827Z
from Region 1054 (N15E29). Region 1054 continues to show a slow
growth trend. Region 1055 (S24W27) was quiet and mostly unchanged
during the past 24 hours. A CME was observed on the east limb at
about 11/2330Z and appeared to be associated with the eruption of a
filament in the northeast quadrant.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from this region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled at mid-latitudes,
with one active period at some stations from 0300-0600Z. The high
latitudes observed quiet to active levels with some isolated storm
periods between 0300-0600Z, and from 1200-1500Z. Solar wind
velocities remained elevated through the period, generally ranging
between 500-580 km/s. There appeared to be a decreasing trend during
the last 4 hours of the period, with day-end speed values around 480
km/s. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed
stream from the southward extension of the northern polar coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first day (13 March) due to persistence. Quiet to
unsettled levels (with a chance for active periods) are expected on
days two and three (14-15 March) due to possible effects from a
recurrent solar sector boundary.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Mar 090 Previsto 13 Mar-15 Mar 092/094/095 Media de 90 Días 12 Mar 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/010-007/007-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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