Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 febrero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Feb 04 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 035 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Feb 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N26W33)
remains stable and has not produced any significant activity within
the past 24 hours. The return of old region 1040 remains evident in
EIT and SXI imagery, however, no spots have been reported. There is
a coronal hole visible in the northeast sector of the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar Activity is expected to remain
very low with only a slight chance for a C-class event for the next
three days (5-7 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two periods of unsettled
conditions from 04/0000Z-04/0300Z and 04/0600Z-0900Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day 1 (5 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (6 February), and unsettled to active conditions with a slight
chance for minor storming is expected on day 3 (07 February). The
increase in activity is forecast due to possible effects from the
CME observed on 02 February, as well as the coronal hole mentioned
in part 1A.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Feb 074 Previsto 05 Feb-07 Feb 075/077/080 Media de 90 Días 04 Feb 078
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Feb 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-008/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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