Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 marzo 2008
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2008 Mar 01 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 061 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Mar 2008IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk was spotless.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storm levels predominated from 29/2100-01/0300Z due to a high
speed stream with solar wind speeds in the 700-800 km/s range and an
interval of mostly negative Bz (values were mostly in the range from
-6 nT to +2 nT). Unsettled to active levels followed through
01/0900Z as Bz slowly shifted to a less negative orientation.
Activity was predominantly unsettled from 0900Z to the end of the
period. Solar wind speeds remain elevated (700-800 km/s) as of
forecast issue time but Bz has moderated with values ranging between
-3 to +3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first day (02 March) due to persistent effects from
the high speed stream. Conditions should decline to quiet to
unsettled levels for the second day (03 March) as influence of the
high speed stream is expected to wane. Conditions should be
predominantly quiet by the third day (04 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Mar a 04 Mar
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Mar 069 Previsto 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070 Media de 90 Días 01 Mar 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Feb 018/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 012/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Mar a 04 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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