Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 noviembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Nov 15 2207 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 924 (S08E28) produced a
C1 flare on 15/1901Z. This region was in decay, but new trailer
sunspots emerged late in the period. Region 923 (S05W20) still
maintains considerable size, but is in a slow decay phase. Region
925 (S05E38) is a small, simple beta group, which exhibited slight
growth.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Regions 923 and 924 have potential for isolated C-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active. A recurrent high speed
stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods
over the next thee days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 096 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 079
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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