Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 septiembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Sep 23 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Sep 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low with one C-class flare produced
by Region 910 (S10W18). Seeing conditions at all optical sites have
ranged from poor to non-existent so there is some disagreement in
the magnetic classification of this region, however, a
classification of Beta seems most likely. The San Vito optical
site reported a Type II radio sweep from 23/1106Z - 23/1114Z with an
estimated shock speed of 711 km/s. No current imagery is available
to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated
with this radio event or in identifying the location of this event.
Within an hour of the radio sweep GOES 11 experienced an enhancement
of >1 MeV proton flux which peaked at 1800Z and is now decreasing.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There remains a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region
910.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one unsettled period. Activity
is due to both the occurrence of a solar sector boundary crossing
and the beginning of a coronal hole high speed stream now rotating
into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
was at high levels again today, however, at approximately 1930Z flux
decreased to below the threshold level for the first time in several
days.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with some isolated
minor storm periods. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Sep 070 Previsto 24 Sep-26 Sep 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 23 Sep 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 010/020-006/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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