Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 agosto 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Aug 20 2221 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 232 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Aug 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S14W72) produced
multiple B-class and C-class flares including a C2.9 flare at
20/1632Z. This region also produced a long duration C-class flare
with maximum occurring at 20/1346Z, An associated CME was observed
on the southwest limb in LASCO imagery at 20/1442Z. The
plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be 300 km/s.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. There
was a period of severe storm levels from 1200 - 1800Z recorded on
the College, AK magnetometer. This activity is likely due to the
full halo CME observed on 16 August.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period, 21 - 23
August. Due to the relatively slow speed of the CME mentioned
above, no effects are anticipated during this forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Aug 088 Previsto 21 Aug-23 Aug 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 20 Aug 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 021/038 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 022/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 008/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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