Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 julio 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Jul 06 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate with a single M-class flare
(M2/2F) occurring at 0836Z accompanied by type II and type IV radio
sweeps. The estimated shock speed of the type II radio sweep was
565 km/sec. The M2 was associated with a disappearing solar
filament (extent of 11 degrees) and a partial halo CME (plane of sky
speed of 824 km/sec) from the southwest limb. Region 898 (S08W41)
features a large negative polarity leader spot with a fragment
splitting off to the southwest. There is an incursion of positive
polarity flux penetrating the main spot. Region 899 (S05E56) was
quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active interval
from 05/2100 - 06/0300Z. The solar wind speed remains elevated due
to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during
the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons
began around 1030 UTC in response to the M2 flare and CME. The
maximum flux reached approximately 2 PFU. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for July 07 - 08. An increase to
active, with a chance for periods of minor storm levels may occur
sometime July 09 due to the arrival of the flank of today's CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jul 085 Previsto 07 Jul-09 Jul 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 06 Jul 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 018/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 012/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 007/008-007/010-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 25% |
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