Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 18 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 199 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
visible disk was spotless today. Old Region 790 (S10 L=013)
produced low level B-class flares very early in the period from
beyond the solar west limb. The disk and limbs were fairly
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
The elevated conditions may have resulted from the X1 flare and
associated full halo CME that occurred on 14 July. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134
pfu at 15/0345Z, and ended at 18/1015Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels
on 19 July. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected
to become geoeffective on 20 July with active to minor storming
conditions anticipated and isolated major storming possible. A
decrease to predominantly unsettled to active levels can be expected
on 21 July..
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jul a 21 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jul 072 Previsto 19 Jul-21 Jul 070/075/075 Media de 90 Días 18 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jul 015/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 022/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/015-020/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jul a 21 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 05% |
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