Viendo archivo del martes, 21 junio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jun 21 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jun 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S07E12) produced
an impulsive C2.1/Sf at 1804 UTC. No significant development was
observed on active regions and no new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 779 (S16W71) and 780 may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained above high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days. Active and isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on day three (24 June) as a
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jun a 24 Jun
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jun 083 Previsto 22 Jun-24 Jun 085/085/080 Media de 90 Días 21 Jun 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 003/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jun a 24 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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