Viendo archivo del viernes, 8 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 08 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 189 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N12W17) produced a
long duration C1.6 event at 08/1618 UTC. There was also a reported
Type IV radio sweep which may be associated with this flare. The
event was optically correlated with the GOES solar x-ray imager
data. Region 786 continues to be the largest group on the disk and
exhibits a magnetic delta configuration. A CME is currently
observed in the LASCO imagery at 08/1922 UTC. Limited data at this
time does not allow for a complete analysis of the source for this
activity. The main trajectory seems to be off the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 remains a likely source for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 09-10 July. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to effects from the observed CME's between
05-07 July, and the possible influence from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 11
July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jul 110 Previsto 09 Jul-11 Jul 110/105/105 Media de 90 Días 08 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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