Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 junio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jun 14 0030 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 164 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jun 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 775 (N10W46) and
776 (S06W34) are both in decay. LASCO imagery showed a CME at
13/1600 UTC. The ejecta was directed to the north west and is not
likely to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Periods of major storming levels were observed at 12/2100 - 2400 UTC
and again at 13/0300 - 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to a
prolonged southward Bz in response to CME activity from 08 June. By
the end of the period conditions had quieted down to unsettled
levels and the Bz component of the Magnetic field did not vary
beyond +/- 5 Nt. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 14 June. The arrival of a CME
associated with C-class X-ray activity early on 12 June is expected
early on 15 June causing unsettled to active conditions with periods
of minor storming possible. Activity is expected to settle down to
quiet to active levels on 16 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jun 092 Previsto 14 Jun-16 Jun 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 13 Jun 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 023/035 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 020/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/012-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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