Viendo archivo del martes, 17 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 763 (S14W10)
produced an M1.8/1B tenflare at 17/0239 UTC with associated type II
and type IV radio sweeps. Associated with this flare, a very faint
full halo CME was seen on LASCO imagery beginning at 17/0350 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
ranged from 650 km/s to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for 18 May. Quiet
to active conditions are expected on 19 May as the faint full halo
CME may arrive late in the period. Unsettled conditions are
expected on 20 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 May a 20 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 May 090 Previsto 18 May-20 May 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 17 May 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 May 018/033 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 May 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 May a 20 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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