Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 abril 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Apr 21 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 111 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Apr 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 752 (N03W55) and
755 (S12E21) continue to decay. X-ray flux background is down to
approximately A2 level. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early on 22 April. A geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to increase conditions
later in the day. Unsettled to active with minor storm periods are
possible late on 22 April continuing into early 23 April.
Conditions are expected to settle down on 24 April to mostly quiet
to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Apr a 24 Apr
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Apr 077 Previsto 22 Apr-24 Apr 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 21 Apr 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Apr 012/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Apr 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 015/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Apr a 24 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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