Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 abril 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Apr 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 752 (N01E43) showed slight growth during the period and a weak gamma magnetic structure is visible in the central sunspot cluster. This region was limited to low level B-class flare production. Region 754 (S08E51) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 752 is complex enough to generate a C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated levels are due to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 15 April as the geoeffective high speed stream wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Apr 085
  Previsto   15 Apr-17 Apr  085/085/085
  Media de 90 Días        14 Apr 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr  018/026
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  020/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  010/012-005/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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