Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 051 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. A long
duration B-class flare was observed at 20/1628Z from just beyond the
solar west limb. This event is believed to be from Region 732 (N08
L=188) which rotated out of view on 18 February. Region 735
(S09W58) has changed little since yesterday and remains a magnetic
beta-gamma group. Region 736 (N13W50) is a weak beta magnetic
region that was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 735 continues to show enough
complexity to possibly produce isolated C-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period did occur between 20/2400 and 0300Z that
appears to be due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
The coronal hole has been waning throughout the period and current
solar wind speeds have dropped to near 400 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Feb a 23 Feb
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Feb 096 Previsto 21 Feb-23 Feb 095/095/090 Media de 90 Días 20 Feb 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 005/005-007/010-007/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Feb a 23 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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