Viendo archivo del martes, 4 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 004 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N05W19)
produced several C-class flares, including a C7.3/Sf at 04/1113 UTC.
Region 715 continues to decay in size and magnetic complexity. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 715 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
at ACE remains elevated at about 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 5 January due to continued high
speed solar wind. As the coronal hole producing this elevated wind
moves out of geoeffective position, geomagnetic conditions should
subside to quiet to unsettled on 6-7 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Jan 088 Previsto 05 Jan-07 Jan 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 04 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 014/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 015/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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