Viendo archivo del lunes, 3 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 003 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N04W04)
produced a C3.8/Sf at 0422 UTC. Region 715 has maintained its size
and magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was
observed, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 715 may produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed reported yesterday at 800 km/s has
settled to around 650 km/s, still strong enough to produce the
isolated minor storming observed today. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor
storming possible on 4 January from the residual effects of the
coronal hole still in geoeffective position. Activity should
subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 5-6 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jan 094 Previsto 04 Jan-06 Jan 095/090/090 Media de 90 Días 03 Jan 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 020/033 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 020/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/020-010/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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