Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 diciembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 348 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Dec 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 711
(N13W60) showed slight growth in sunspot area and there appears to
be a weak gamma structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot
cluster. Multiple low level B-class flares were attributed to
Region 711, the only spotted region on the visible disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 711 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions were a result of the observed full halo CME on 8
December. This activity began tapering off early in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 14 and 15 December.
Active conditions may be experienced due to the anticipated return
of a weak recurrent coronal hole on 16 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Dec a 16 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Dec 090 Previsto 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 13 Dec 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Dec 024/036 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Dec 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/008-005/005-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Dec a 16 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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