Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 junio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jun 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jun 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635
(S12W01) produced several C-class flares during the period. The
largest was a C2/Sf event that occurred at 20/1332Z. There was
continued growth in the sunspot area, most notably around the
intermediate spots. Region 635 continues to exhibit a delta
magnetic configuration in the trailing portion of the active region.
Region 634 (N12W18) was quiescent today with little change observed
over the period. The large, lead asymmetrical spot continues to
display a delta magnetic structure. New Region 636 (S10E30) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 634 and 635 are capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jun 119 Previsto 21 Jun-23 Jun 120/115/115 Media de 90 Días 20 Jun 102
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 004/005-004/008-004/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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