Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 618
(S10E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 x-ray event
that occurred at 24/1104Z. There was a continued growth in sunspot
area and the total spot count today. A continued emergence of flux
now shows several delta structures near region center in this
magnetic beta-gamma-delta group. The remaining active regions were
quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Due to continued growth in magnetic
complexity, Region 618 has the potential of producing M-class flare
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The high
speed solar wind stream continues to persist while solar wind speeds
were exceeding 500 km/s late in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible through 25 May as the geoeffective
high speed coronal hole stream begins to wane. NOTE: The ACE
spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from
about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is
expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the
loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 May a 27 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 May 105 Previsto 25 May-27 May 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 24 May 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 May 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 May 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 007/010-007/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 May a 27 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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