Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 10 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A disappearing solar
filament was observed on 10 May at approximately 0350 UTC from the
area of Region 606 (S09E40).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet through 12 May, then increase slightly to
unsettled levels on 13 May with the possible effects of the
disappearing solar filament of 10 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 093 Previsto 11 May-13 May 095/090/090 Media de 90 Días 10 May 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 006/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 005/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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