Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 087 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 586
(S18W80) produced four, low-level C-class flares during the past 24
hours. Region 582 (N14E45) continues to be the largest group on the
disk but was quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region
582 being the most likely source.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind data
show the continuation and intensification of the high speed stream.
The velocity increased from around 600 km/s up to about 900 km/s
between 1500Z and 2100Z. At the same time density decreased,
temperature increased, and Alfven wave activity in the magnetic
field components appeared to increase.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field should be
mostly unsettled to active for the next three days (27-29 March) as
the high speed stream is likely to persist.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Mar a 30 Mar
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Mar 128 Previsto 28 Mar-30 Mar 125/120/115 Media de 90 Días 27 Mar 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Mar a 30 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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