Viendo archivo del martes, 6 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 006 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was high. Newly assigned Region 537
(N04E76) produced an M5 x-ray event at 0629 UTC. A CME was
associated with this event, but it appears to be centered over this
east limb region and has very little, if any, earthward directed
component. Region 537 produced additional small flares during the
past 24 hours. Region 536 (S10E12) continues to dominate the disk in
size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta), but was remarkably
quiet and stable and has been mostly unchanged during the past 24
hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for 7-9 January, with Region 536 and Region
537 being the main sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for another, isolated major flare event from either of these
regions.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. A high-speed solar wind stream continues to be
observed at the ACE spacecraft. Active conditions predominated from
the beginning of the day through about 0900 UTC, after which Bz
turned weakly northwards and the geomagnetic field declined to quiet
to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with periods of minor storm conditions for 7
and 8 January. In addition to persistent effects from the high speed
wind stream, an enhancement to activity levels is possible beginning
late on the 7th or early on the 8th in response to the CME
associated with the M6 flare of 5 January. Conditions should subside
to mostly active late on 8 January and remain mostly active on 9
January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jan 117 Previsto 07 Jan-09 Jan 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 06 Jan 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jan 015/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 025/030-025/030-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 20% |
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