Viendo archivo del lunes, 5 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 005 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The GOES x-ray
imager observed a long duration M6 flare from Region 536 (S11E25) at
05/0345 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. Again this
region has exceeded 900 millionths of white light area coverage and
has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 536 remains capable of producing an M-class
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active levels with periods of minor
storm conditions for 06-08 January. This is due to the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Additionally,
isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible on 07-08
January as a result of the M6 event at 05/0345 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jan 123 Previsto 06 Jan-08 Jan 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 05 Jan 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 013/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 020/025-025/030-025/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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