Viendo archivo del jueves, 25 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 359 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W18)
produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration C5/Sf
flare at 25/0825Z. This region has shown a slight growth over the
period and retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 525
(N09W49) produced several low level C-class flares early in the
period. No spots were visible in this region at the time of this
writing. New Region 532 (S11E02) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 528 has a slight chance of producing a low level
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The solar
wind speed continues a gradual decline, ending the period below 380
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Dec 139 Previsto 26 Dec-28 Dec 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 25 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Dec 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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