Viendo archivo del viernes, 29 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 241 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Though several regions
currently reside on the visible disk, none show significant
potential for greater than C-class flare activity. Two new regions;
450 (S18E66) and 451 (S10W65) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 450, 449, and 445 have a fair chance of producing C-class
flare activity. No other activity is expected.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Two
periods of minor storming occurred one at 1200 and another at 1700
UTC. The solar wind speeds continue to be elevated above 450 km/s,
reaching over 600 km/s toward the end of the period. This combined
with a sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity
have kept the geomagnetic field elevated. The greater than 2 MeV
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days.
By late on day three, geomagnetic activity should increase to
unsettled to minor storm levels due to a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Aug a 01 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Aug 116 Previsto 30 Aug-01 Sep 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 29 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 011/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Aug a 01 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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