Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 240 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Three new regions were
numbered today; Region 447 (N16W05), 448 (N19E34), and 449 (S16E69).
None of the regions have shown any considerable activity beyond a
few small C-class flares.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 449 has been slightly active, and has a slight chance of
generating M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.
Portions of the high speed stream from a departing coronal hole
remain, keeping the solar wind speeds above 420 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field continues to be oriented southward.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days. A
slight chance for minor storming exists for the next 24 hours due a
combination of the continued southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field, and the sustained solar wind speeds
above 400 km/s.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Aug 119 Previsto 29 Aug-31 Aug 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 28 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 012/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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