Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 212 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class events that were attributed
to Region 422 (N14W80). Region 423 (S19W03) was newly numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm
levels. The recurrent high speed coronal hole stream continues to
be geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the first two days
of the forecast period. Minor storm conditions are possible during
nighttime for the first day of the interval. Day three should see a
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Aug a 03 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jul 102 Previsto 01 Aug-03 Aug 105/110/115 Media de 90 Días 31 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jul 024/029 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 024/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Aug a 03 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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