Viendo archivo del miércoles, 30 julio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 211 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jul 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 422 (N14W67) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2.5/1b flare that occurred at 30/0410Z. A Tenflare and several discrete radio bursts were associated with the event. There were no observed Type II radio sweeps and LASCO imagery doesn't depict a resulting CME. There appears to have been some decay in complexity to this region overnight and the gamma magnetic structure is no longer evident, although the majority of the flare activity came from this region during the period. Region 421 (S08E41) produced a single event today, a B9.1 x-ray flare that occurred at 30/1014Z. There was some penumbral loss in spot group and little flare production today, but the weak gamma magnetic structure remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 421 and 422 both have a chance of producing further isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels throughout the forecast period. Nighttime sectors may experience isolated minor storm conditions through the first two days of the interval. The high speed stream should be in the waning phase by the end of day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jul a 02 Aug
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Jul 099
  Previsto   31 Jul-02 Aug  100/100/095
  Media de 90 Días        30 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jul  024/036
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  020/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jul a 02 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%25%
Tormenta Menor20%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%35%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%

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