Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 205 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 417 (S22W91) continued
to produce several C-class events during the period. There was an
observed Type II radio sweep associated with a C1 at 24/0249 UTC.
This seems to be from Region 417 which was optically correlated with
the SXI imagery. Region 410 (S13W79) continues to decay but
maintains a little of its magnetic complexity and is a beta gamma
group today. A new region emerged on the disk toady and was
numbered as Region 420 (N11E79). This is most likely the return of
old Region 397 which produced several M-class events during its last
rotation.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 410.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jul a 27 Jul
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Jul 125 Previsto 25 Jul-27 Jul 120/125/125 Media de 90 Días 24 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jul 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Jul 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jul a 27 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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