Viendo archivo del domingo, 11 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 357 (S16E70)
was numbered today, but poses little threat of any significant
activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continues
to be at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels for the next three
days. A significant coronal hole will be in geoeffective position
at the beginning of the period, and is of great enough extent to
continue to impact the earth's magnetic field for several days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 May a 14 May
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 May 092 Previsto 12 May-14 May 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 11 May 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 May 032/043 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 May 025/034 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 025/030-030/030-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 May a 14 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 25% |
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