Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 abril 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels this period. Region 338 (N18W45) produced an M3/1n at 24/1253Z with associated Type II (830 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. Region 339 (N16,L=337) was active during the period, producing several C-class flares as it crossed the west limb, the largest being a C8 flare at 24/1553Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Regions 344 (N16E39), 345 (S17E74), and 346 (N16E74) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 may produce futher M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds up to near 600 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. High speed coronal hole flow may be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak CME impact from an M5 flare on April 23 are possible on days one and two. A CME impact produced by today's M3 flare may arrive on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Apr a 27 Apr
Clase M40%40%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Apr 128
  Previsto   25 Apr-27 Apr  130/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        24 Apr 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Apr  013/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  020/023
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  020/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Apr a 27 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor30%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor35%35%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%

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